A brewing storm in the Caribbean Sea is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days and make landfall along the Gulf Coast as early as Thursday − possibly as a major Category 3 system.
“Everyone along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region needs to be prepared for hurricane impacts,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said Monday, adding that the setup has the potential to become the strongest hurricane landfall in the U.S. so far this season.
Most forecast models suggest a hurricane landfall in Florida or the northern Gulf Coast on Thursday, Weather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman said.
The system, elevated to "potential tropical cyclone nine" status Monday morning, will be named Helene once it becomes a tropical storm, which is expected to happen later Monday or Tuesday.
Gulf Coast residents should prepare now, forecasters say
Unlike many hurricanes that track for days or weeks across the Atlantic Ocean, giving people ample warning for landfall, this one is forecast to develop and strengthen rapidly once it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
“Now is the time to start preparing for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Don’t wait for this storm to be officially named,” AccuWeather meteorologist Jon Porter said.
He said there is the potential that this storm could further strengthen into a major hurricane, which is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds of 111-129 mph.
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This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for, Porter said.
Track the storm:Tropical storm could form in Gulf of Mexico early this week
The forecast track of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, which is expected to become Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Helene over the next couple of days.
Where is the system now?
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the National Hurricane Center said in a Monday morning forecast.
"Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system," the center said.
"A tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next day or two as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where additional development is expected."
The Hurricane Hunters will investigate the developing storm Monday, the center reported.
Storm could rapidly intensify
Forecasters at the hurricane center warn that the system could intensify rapidly over the Gulf of Mexico, potentially reaching 110 mph.
The "environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening," the hurricane center said in its 11 a.m. discussion. One model shows a 95% chance of the storm's winds increasing by 75 mph or more over the next 72 hours, the center said.
How strong could Helene become?
Helene could become a formidable hurricane in the Gulf, according to Erdman, who said there is plenty of deep, warm water in the northwest Caribbean and parts of the Gulf of Mexico to power up the storm.
In fact, Gulf of Mexico heat content is at record high levels for this time of year, according to University of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy.
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